1. "This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us." – Western Union internal memo, 1876" - this prediction is of great interest to me because of how the telephone has revolutionized our world. Nowadays we are all connected through social interaction which primarily stems from cellular phones.
2. "Reagan doesn't have that presidential look." – United Artists executive after rejecting Reagan as lead in the 1964 film The Best Man - this one made me laugh because some people see Ronald Reagan as the epitome of the presidential look and vibe. Thus, pretty funny how he was turned down to play role as president when he actually became president.
3. "Rail travel at high speed is not possible because passengers, unable to breathe, would die of asphyxia." – Dr. Dionysius Lardner, 1830 - nowadays high speed travel is more than possible with people surviving at speeds of 120 mph or higher. Lardner here didn't think to account for airtight cabins with pressurization to allow passengers to breathe.
4. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." – Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 - this prediction is amusing because as the chair of IBM a computer company that sells millions of computers today once mentioned that only 5 would be used worldwide. Amazing what scaling has done.
5. "X-rays will prove to be a hoax." – Lord Kelvin, President of the Royal Society, 1883 This one is pretty good because how could X-rays be a hoax if they can actually see into the bones and discover what is wrong inside without having to break skin. X-rays are now a part of modern science and necessary for many procedures.
6. "Everyone acquainted with the subject will recognize it as a conspicuous failure." – -Henry Morton, president of the Stevens Institute of Technology, on Edison's light bulb, 1880. The light bulb, in my opinion, is one of the most important technological advances in history. Morton thought it was a failure but if he were alive today I think he would be amazed at its transformation of human life.
7. "The horse is here to stay but the automobile is only a novelty—a fad." – -The president of the Michigan Savings Bank advising Henry Ford's lawyer not to invest in the Ford Motor Co., 1903. How ironic. The horse is was long gone a mere 50 years after this quote and investing in Ford would have been an amazing investment. Now traffic is so intense at peak hours there is no movement.
8. "Television won't last because people will soon get tired of staring at a plywood box every night." – -Darryl Zanuck, movie producer, 20th Century Fox, 1946. Today the average American watches about an hour or more each day so clearly, not many people have gotten too tired of "staring at a plywood box every night.".
9. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home." – -Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation (DEC), in a talk given to a 1977 World Future Society meeting in Boston. I am doing this assignment on my own personal computer which goes to show the revolution of the personal computer.
10. "If excessive smoking actually plays a role in the production of lung cancer, it seems to be a minor one." – -W.C. Heuper, National Cancer Institute, 1954. This is sad but true that smoking has extremely negative effects on those who smoke as well as those around can also get lung cancer. Many have died due to excessive smoking since it is an addictive drug.
These are my 10 predictions that were wrong and why they are interesting regarding the fact that they were proven wrong and each has it's own social impact. Thanks.
This is great! You idea of bringing up scalability and mass production for #4 is very true.
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